What’s for dinner tonight?
You might be thinking of defrosting some frozen chicken for a quick stir-fry with your favourite vegetables.
Or perhaps some steamed fresh fish from the market.
But have you ever wondered what your dinner table – or your children’s table – will look like in 2050?
How will we get food then?
Feeding tomorrow’s world is a greatly pressing topic. By 2050, the world’s population is expected to reach 9.8 billion, and agricultural output will need to increase by more than 70 percent.[1] Growing population will also likely lead to increased urbanisation, shrinking agricultural land and increasing the strain on an already stretched food supply.
At the same time, our planetary boundaries are severely stressed. Climate change has brought about extreme weather events which had severely disrupted food production worldwide in recent years: heatwaves scorching arable lands in central and northern Europe, causing loss of crop yield of up to 50%[2]; flooding of farmland in Nigeria that triggered a country-wide food crisis[3]; wildfires in California that destroyed much of its wine production. Zoonotic diseases like avian influenza further exacerbates the situation. In fact, the scientific consensus is that “Earth is now well outside of the safe operating space for humanity.”[4]
Against this backdrop, the spectre of food insecurity looms ever larger. Food security has become a top priority for governments, leading to increased protectionism. Since 2022, 27 countries around the world have implemented export bans on food products such as grains, meat, edible oils, vegetables and fruits, and fertilisers, fuelling global inflation and hunger.[5]
These structural forces have compelled farmers, scientists and technologists to profoundly reimagine how we produce, distribute, and consume food. This is accompanied by shifting cultural norms around food.
Agri-tech innovations attempt to transform how we grow food. Vertical farming can be done within buildings to conserve land and allows for year-round production in controlled environments. The integration of Internet of Things (IoT) devices in farming practices promises to usher in a new era of precision agriculture. Smart greenhouses, agricultural drones, predictive analytics, and geofencing could potentially increase crop yield whilst lowering operational costs.[6]
When these crops travel to us, they stay fresh longer – advancements in food packaging and transportation are extending the shelf life of products, thus minimising waste. Nano-enabled food packaging infuses nanoparticles into packaging materials to create barriers against oxygen, moisture, and other contaminants that degrade food quality.[7] Improved cold chain logistics, such as refrigerated containers and smart sensor monitored, temperature-controlled warehouses, help food reach its destination safely.
These tech innovations are complemented by a cultural shift towards more sustainable, less meat-heavy food choices. Plant-based proteins like Beyond Meat and Impossible Meat are prime examples – plant-based meat substitutes purportedly have a 50% lower environmental impact. Vegetarianism and veganism are also on a (slow) rise, especially in developed countries.[8] This is significant, as traditional animal agriculture accounts for one-third of human-induced nitrogen emissions.[9]
However, in Oceanus’ view, the trajectory of these developments is still highly uncertain despite the hype. The scalability, widespread adoption, and commercial viability of these new technologies are not yet demonstrated. Vertical farms, for example, currently have higher production costs compared to traditional farms – many vertical farms are still operating on venture capital and not yet profitable.[10] Kalera, which once owned the most vertical farms around the world, filed for bankruptcy in April 2023, followed by another industry pioneer, AeroFarms, which went under with a staggering losses of US$39 million.[11]
Similarly, artificial proteins come with a premium price tag, making them inaccessible to many. Cultural acceptance is another hurdle – skeptical consumers have questioned the “ultra-processed” nature of such products.[12] Below-target sales figures at Impossible and Beyond Meat, both industry leaders in plant-based protein, resulted in both laying off workers recently.[13]
Given these critical uncertainties, how will the future of food evolve? At Oceanus, we’ve analysed the different trajectories and developed futures scenarios to describe two potential outcomes in 2050 :
You’ve invited some friends over for dinner – time to start cooking. For a salad, you pop into your balcony for your latest crop of high-yield, pest-resistance spinach. You’re thinking of strawberry tarts for dessert, because the latest batch from the community garden are ready for harvest – and enriched with Vitamin A, no less. These days, you don’t go far for fresh produce, because 70% of comes from within a 30km radius.
You also have a surprise in store for your guests –a box of plant-based rib eye! One of your friends inexplicably hasn’t fully converted to full vegetarianism yet and everyone’s teasing her about it. Hopefully this will change her mind.
This scenario hinges on significant breakthroughs in vertical farming technology that make it cost-effective, commercially viable and scalable to meet the demands of large urban populations. Improved taste and affordability of alternative proteins would also be essential in creating widespread adoption. Undeniably, both vertical farming and alternative proteins are currently experiencing many bumps in the road. But some investors like Walmart [14] are still optimistic they may still go the way of the dot-com bust that eventually heralded digital revolution, and turn the corner later towards widespread adoption.
You’re in your living room, scrolling through your virtual supermarket. The “Just In” section is exploding with colour and texture. The Kiwano melons just got in from New Zealand. There’s also a box of jabuticaba, the Brazilian tree-grape – those are great for jellies. And the pandanus from the Pacific Islands taste like concentrated pineapples. You grab a bunch of Dutch tulips at checkout, because they look like they’ve been picked just yesterday.
They most likely weren’t. But thanks to efficient, carbon-neutral cold-chain transportation and widespread adoption of advanced nano-tech packaging[15] , “perishables” from around the world have been given much longer and reliable lifespans. And thanks to blockchain technology, you are assured of their provenance and traceability.
In 2035, the United Nations ratified the Global Food Accord – where countries reduce food import tariffs, minimise food export bans and pledge greater financing to fuel food import and exports, mainly powering small and medium farmers and companies. As a result, the 14% of global food that was wasted through the supply chain in 2021 fell to 8% in 2050 (think of the mountains of avocadoes rotting in a farm because it is cheaper to let them go than selling them overseas). There’s still a way to go, but there is progress.
This vision of global availability relies on significant technological advancements in transportation and logistics of the global food trade, particularly in sustainable and energy-efficient cold-chain solutions. It will also require international cooperative treaties to ensure responsible and sustainable trade practices.
While a “global hyper-local diet” may seem like an oxymoron, in our view these two scenarios will co-exist in the future – albeit at different times and to different degrees. Think of both as intersecting soundwaves, with ebbs and flows. Whilst Governments may invest more in building up resilience in local production, in reality, food supplies will continue to experience disruptions due to climate change. Our demand for global variety will also continue, due to exposure to other food cultures through tourism and the Internet.
We are certain that international food trade and distribution will continue to be critical. It’s not a matter of if, it’s a matter of how.
Oceanus is committed to creating a more food-secure world, where global food trade and distribution thrive alongside vibrant local and regional markets. We have identified some key pain points in international food trade and distribution, and we’re making it our mission to address them.
The most significant one is arguably the highly inefficient and inequitable systems in in cross-border payments, trade financing and real-time shipment tracking, that have resulted in an estimated global trade finance gap US$151 billion, and that is also keeping diverse players such as small-to-medium enterprises (SMEs) out of the market.
Oceanus’ model of “Pipelines and Platforms” are thus part of our tech-up efforts to address these. Leading with the Oceanus Digital Network, or ODIN, we’ve put together key services to plug market gaps.
The key of which are ODIN Pay, which will make it easier for SMEs to access the global food trade market by streamlining complex cross-border payments processes and digitises trade documents like invoices and third-party bill of laden,. Using ODIN Pay, SMEs will be able to open multi-currency virtual accounts, and even lock in favourable foreign exchange rates with FX forwards and options.
The second is ODIN Finance, which utilises transacted payment data points generated for credit risk analysis, to provide innovative financing solutions. As a result of financing, more trades can be conducted, which increases demand for cross-border payments and hence generates more data for credit risk analysis. The virtuous cycle then continues.
We have been testing ODIN with our own subsidiaries first, and it works. Since last year, more than S$90 million worth of payments and over S$3.6 million of foreign exchange forward contracts have been put through ODIN Pay and S$2 million worth of food trades have been financed through ODIN Finance.
Collectively, ODIN can address the underserved needs of the global food trade finance sector and ensure better control and traceability of products across the supply chain. Through technology and advanced data analytics, Oceanus creates an efficient distribution that is crucial for a balanced global food supply, more market stability and less waste.
We stand ready for the future of food. What about you?